Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release

Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend the scope of these methods by proposing a method for characterizing the time, strength, and also the location of an aerosolized pathogen release. A back-calculation method is developed allowing the characterization of the release based on the data on the first few observed cases of the subsequent outbreak, meteorological data, population densities, and data on population travel patterns. We evaluate this method on small simulated anthrax outbreaks (about 25–35 cases) and show that it could date and localize a release after a few cases have been observed, although misspecifications of the spore dispersion model, or the within-host dynamics model, on which the method relies can bias the estimates. Our method could also provide an estimate of the outbreak's geographical extent and, as a consequence, could help to identify populations at risk and, therefore, requiring prophylactic treatment. Our analysis demonstrates that while estimates based on the first ten or 15 observed cases were more accurate and less sensitive to model misspecifications than those based on five cases, overall mortality is minimized by targeting prophylactic treatment early on the basis of estimates made using data on the first five cases. The method we propose could provide early estimates of the time, strength, and location of an aerosolized anthrax release and the geographical extent of the subsequent outbreak. In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics

Oportunidades perdidas na prevenção da sífilis congênita e da transmissão vertical do HIV

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of missed opportunities for congenital syphilis and HIV prevention in pregnant women who had access to prenatal care and to assess factors associated to non-testing of these infections. METHODS: Cross-sectional study comprising a randomly selected sample of 2,145 puerperal women who were admitted in maternity hospitals for delivery or curettage and had attended at least one prenatal care visit, in Brazil between 1999 and 2000. No syphilis and/or anti-HIV testing during pregnancy was a marker for missed prevention opportunity. Women who were not tested for either or both were compared to those who had at least one syphilis and one anti-HIV testing performed during pregnancy (reference category). The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity was estimated for each category with 95% confidence intervals. Factors independently associated with missed prevention opportunity were assessed through multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity for syphilis or anti-HIV was 41.2% and 56.0%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that race/skin color (non-white), schooling (OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia de oportunidad de pérdida de prevención de la sífilis y el HIV entre gestantes que tuvieron acceso al pre-natal y factores asociados con la no evaluación de estos agravios. MÉTODOS: Se realizó estudio transversal con muestra aleatoria de 2.145 puérperas de Brasil, 1999 y 2000 admitidas en maternidades para parto o curetaje y que habían realizado al menos una consulta de pre-natal. La no realización del examen de prueba para sífilis y/o anti-HIV durante el embarazo fue usada como marcador para oportunidad de pérdida de prevención. Las mujeres que realizaron sólo examen de sífilis o sólo examen de anti-HIV, o que no realizaron ninguno, fueron comparadas con las que realizaron los dos (categoría de referencia). La prevalencia de oportunidad de pérdida de prevención fue estimada para cada categoría, con intervalo de confianza de 95%. Los factores asociados con la oportunidad de pérdida de prevención fueron analizados por medio de regresión logística multinomial. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de oportunidad de pérdida de prevención para la realización de la prueba de sífilis o anti-HIV fue de 41,2% e 56,0%, respectivamente. El análisis multivariado indicó que raza/color (no blanca), escolaridad (< 8 años de estudio), estado civil (soltera), renta < 3 salarios mínimos, relación sexual durante el embarazo, no haber tenido sífilis anterior al embarazo actual, realización de seis o mas consultas de pre-natal y la realización de la última visita antes del tercer trimestre de embarazo, estaban asociados con mayor riesgo de tener oportunidad de pérdida de prevención. Se observó una asociación negativa entre estado civil (soltera), lugar de realización de pre-natal (hospital) y la realización de la primera consulta pre-natal en el tercer trimestre con oportunidad de pérdida de prevención. CONCLUSIONES: Altos porcentajes de gestantes no evaluadas señalan fallas en la prevención y control de la infección por HIV y de la sífilis congénita en los servicios de salud. Las gestantes continúan interrumpiendo el cuidado pre-natal precozmente y no logran realizar los procedimientos de selección para HIV y sífilis.OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de oportunidade perdida de prevenção a sífilis e HIV entre gestantes que tiveram acesso ao pré-natal e fatores associados a não-testagem para esses agravos. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal com amostra aleatória de 2.145 puérperas do Brasil, 1999 e 2000 admitidas em maternidades para parto ou curetagem e que haviam realizado pelo menos uma consulta de pré-natal. A não-realização de exame de teste para sífilis e/ou anti-HIV durante a gravidez foi usada como marcador para oportunidade perdida de prevenção. Mulheres que realizaram apenas exame de sífilis ou apenas o anti-HIV, ou não realizaram nenhum, foram comparadas àquelas que realizaram os dois (categoria de referência). A prevalência de oportunidade perdida de prevenção foi estimada para cada categoria, com intervalo de confiança de 95%. Os fatores associados com oportunidade perdida de prevenção foram analisados por meio de regressão logística multinomial. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de oportunidade perdida de prevenção para a realização do teste de sífilis ou anti-HIV foi de 41,2% e 56,0%, respectivamente. A análise multivariada indicou que raça/cor (não branca), escolaridade (< 8 anos de estudo), estado civil (solteira), rend

Using email reminders to engage physicians in an Internet-based CME intervention

BACKGROUND: Engaging practicing physicians in educational strategies that reinforce guideline adoption and improve the quality of healthcare may be difficult. Push technologies such as email offer new opportunities to engage physicians in online educational reinforcing strategies. The objectives are to investigate 1) the effectiveness of email announcements in engaging recruited community-based primary care physicians in an online guideline reinforcement strategy designed to promote Chlamydia screening, 2) the characteristics of physicians who respond to email announcements, as well as 3) how quickly and when they respond to email announcements. METHODS: Over a 45-week period, 445 recruited physicians received up to 33 email contacts announcing and reminding them of an online women's health guideline reinforcing CME activity. Participation was defined as physician log-on at least once to the website. Data were analyzed to determine participation, to compare characteristics of participants with recruited physicians who did not participate, and to determine at what point and when participants logged on. RESULTS: Of 445 recruited physicians with accurate email addresses, 47.2% logged on and completed at least one module. There were no significant differences by age, race, or specialty between participants and non-participants. Female physicians, US medical graduates and MDs had higher participation rates than male physicians, international medical graduates and DOs. Physicians with higher baseline screening rates were significantly more likely to log on to the course. The first 10 emails were the most effective in engaging community-based physicians to complete the intervention. Physicians were more likely to log on in the afternoon and evening and on Monday or Thursday. CONCLUSIONS: Email course reminders may enhance recruitment of physicians to interventions designed to reinforce guideline adoption; physicians' response to email reminders may vary by gender, degree, and country of medical training. Repetition of email communications contributes to physician online participation

Assessing the impact of prescribed medicines on health outcomes

This paper reviews methods that can be used to assess the impact of medicine use on population health outcomes. In the absence of a gold standard, we argue that a convergence of evidence from different types of studies using multiple methods of independent imperfection provides the best bases for attributing improvements in health outcomes to the use of medicines. The major requirements are: good evidence that a safe and effective medicine is being appropriately prescribed; covariation between medicine use and improved health outcomes; and being able to discount alternative explanations of the covariation (via covariate adjustment, propensity analyses and sensitivity analyses), so that medicine use is the most plausible explanation of the improved health outcomes. The strongest possible evidence would be provided by the coherence of the following types of evidence: (1) individual linked data showing that patients are prescribed the medicine, there are reasonable levels of patient compliance, and there is a relationship between medicine use and health improvements that is not explained by other factors; (2) ecological evidence of improvements in these health outcomes in the population in which the medicine is used. Confidence in these inferences would be increased by: the replication of these results in comparable countries and consistent trends in population vital statistics in countries that have introduced the medicine; and epidemiological modelling indicating that changes observed in population health outcomes are plausible given the epidemiology of the condition being treated

Fermi Large Area Telescope observations of PSR J1836+5925

The discovery of the gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1836+5925, powering the formerly unidentified EGRET source 3EG J1835+5918, was one of the early accomplishments of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Sitting 25 degrees off the Galactic plane, PSR J1836+5925 is a 173 ms pulsar with a characteristic age of 1.8 million years, a spindown luminosity of 1.1$\times10^{34}$ erg s$^{-1}$, and a large off-peak emission component, making it quite unusual among the known gamma-ray pulsar population. We present an analysis of one year of LAT data, including an updated timing solution, detailed spectral results and a long-term light curve showing no indication of variability. No evidence for a surrounding pulsar wind nebula is seen and the spectral characteristics of the off-peak emission indicate it is likely magnetospheric. Analysis of recent XMM observations of the X-ray counterpart yields a detailed characterization of its spectrum, which, like Geminga, is consistent with that of a neutron star showing evidence for both magnetospheric and thermal emission.Comment: Accepted to Astrophysical Journa

An avian influenza A(H11N1) virus from a wild aquatic bird revealing a unique Eurasian-American genetic reassortment

Influenza surveillance in different wild bird populations is critical for understanding the persistence, transmission and evolution of these viruses. Avian influenza (AI) surveillance was undertaken in wild migratory and resident birds during the period 2007–2008, in view of the outbreaks of highly pathogenic AI (HPAI) H5N1 in poultry in India since 2006. In this study, we present the whole genome sequence data along with the genetic and virological characterization of an Influenza A(H11N1) virus isolated from wild aquatic bird for the first time from India. The virus was low pathogenicity and phylogenetic analysis revealed that it was distinct from reported H11N1 viruses. The hemagglutinin (HA) gene showed maximum similarity with A/semipalmatedsandpiper/Delaware/2109/2000 (H11N6) and A/shorebird/Delaware/236/2003(H11N9) while the neuraminidase (NA) gene showed maximum similarity with A/duck/Mongolia/540/2001(H1N1). The virus thus possessed an HA gene of the American lineage. The NA and other six genes were of the Eurasian lineage and showed closer relatedness to non-H11 viruses. Such a genetic reassortment is unique and interesting, though the pathways leading to its emergence and its future persistence in the avian reservoir is yet to be fully established

Appraisals, emotions and emotion regulation: An integrative approach

The present work aims to investigate the relation between appraisals, emotions, and emotion regulation strategies by creating a structural equation model which integrates these three aspects of the emotion process. To reach this aim, Italian students (N = 610) confronted with their high school diploma examination completed a questionnaire 3 weeks before the beginning of the exam. Results showed that they experienced primarily three types of emotions—anxiety/fear, frustration/powerlessness, positive emotions—which were related to specific appraisal profiles. Importantly, these appraisal profiles and emotions were associated with the use of different strategies for regulating emotions: anxiety/fear was associated with focusing on the exam, drug use, and an inability to distance oneself from the exam; frustration/powerlessness, with use of suppression, distancing, and drugs; positive emotion, with reappraisal and problem focused strategies. The effectiveness of these different strategies will be discussed

Search for Kaluza-Klein Graviton Emission in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using the Missing Energy Signature

We report on a search for direct Kaluza-Klein graviton production in a data sample of 84 ${pb}^{-1}$ of \ppb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV, recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We investigate the final state of large missing transverse energy and one or two high energy jets. We compare the data with the predictions from a $3+1+n$-dimensional Kaluza-Klein scenario in which gravity becomes strong at the TeV scale. At 95% confidence level (C.L.) for $n$=2, 4, and 6 we exclude an effective Planck scale below 1.0, 0.77, and 0.71 TeV, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PRL, 7 pages 4 figures/Revision includes 5 figure

Measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of b-flavored hadrons produced at the Tevatron

We have measured the number of like-sign (LS) and opposite-sign (OS) lepton pairs arising from double semileptonic decays of $b$ and $\bar{b}$-hadrons, pair-produced at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data samples were collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) during the 1992-1995 collider run by triggering on the existence of $\mu \mu$ and $e \mu$ candidates in an event. The observed ratio of LS to OS dileptons leads to a measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of all produced $b$-flavored hadrons which decay weakly, $\bar{\chi} = 0.152 \pm 0.007$ (stat.) $\pm 0.011$ (syst.), that is significantly larger than the world average $\bar{\chi} = 0.118 \pm 0.005$.Comment: 47 pages, 10 figures, 15 tables Submitted to Phys. Rev.

An evaluation of completeness of tuberculosis notification in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: There has been a resurgence of tuberculosis worldwide, mainly in developing countries but also affecting the United Kingdom (UK), and other Western countries. The control of tuberculosis is dependent on early identification of cases and timely notification to public health departments to ensure appropriate treatment of cases and screening of contacts. Tuberculosis is compulsorily notifiable in the UK, and the doctor making or suspecting the diagnosis is legally responsible for notification. There is evidence of under-reporting of tuberculosis. This has implications for the control of tuberculosis as a disproportionate number of people who become infected are the most vulnerable in society, and are less likely to be identified and notified to the public health system. These include the poor, the homeless, refugees and ethnic minorities. METHOD: This study was a critical literature review on completeness of tuberculosis notification within the UK National Health Service (NHS) context. The review also identified data sources associated with reporting completeness and assessed whether studies corrected for undercount using capture-recapture (CR) methodology. Studies were included if they assessed completeness of tuberculosis notification quantitatively. The outcome measure used was notification completeness expressed between 0% and 100% of a defined denominator, or in numbers not notified where the denominator was unknown. RESULTS: Seven studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified through electronic and manual search of published and unpublished literature. One study used CR methodology. Analysis of the seven studies showed that undernotification varied from 7% to 27% in studies that had a denominator; and 38%–49% extra cases were identified in studies which examined specific data sources like pathology reports or prescriptions for anti-tuberculosis drugs. Cases notified were more likely to have positive microbiology than cases not notified which were more likely to have positive histopathology or be surgical in-patients. Collation of prescription data of two or more anti-tuberculosis drugs increases case ascertainment of tuberculosis. CONCLUSION: The reporting of tuberculosis is incomplete in the UK, although notification is a statutory requirement. Undernotification leads to an underestimation of the disease burden and hinders implementation of appropriate prevention and control strategies. The notification system needs to be strengthened to include education and training of all sub-specialities involved in diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis